Fire AggroTier 1
at 北部地區賽
decks
4
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-8-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1320
· median 1373
· range 1069–1462
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
975
Q1 1166
Q3 1363
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 27.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 26.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
